Compelling Insights on Oil, Iraq, the Economy & Politics

AL QAEDA
A Minor Geo-Strategic Threat Could Become a Major One if America Abandons Iraq

A Candid Review of Al Qaeda Realities

America is facing a relentless assault from radical Islamic organizations and regimes.  These people are highly intelligent, very determined, viciously ruthless and endlessly patient.  They are also very astute observers of the weaknesses in the American political and economic systems.

They are dedicated to the destruction of the USA and the establishment of an extremist Islamic caliphate that would dominate the world by controlling most of the world's oil reserves in the Middle East.  Their whole plan for victory over America is rooted in the belief that: 

1. They have more resolve than apathetic American voters.
2. They grasp America's vulnerabilities better than we do.
3. Their leaders are a lot smarter than ours.
4. They can divide America & destroy it from within.

5. They can use the media to manipulate American voters.
6. The American economy highly dependent on foreign oil.
7. They can exploit the USA's economic & political flaws.
8. The Democrat's power lust is a means to defeat the USA.
9. The Republicans are too inept to defeat their strategy.

Unfortunately, Al Qaeda's plan for the destruction of the USA is being vigorously aided by forces within American politics that vigorously advocate a reckless withdrawal of American ground forces from Iraq with no regard for the economic or geo-strategic consequences.

Many Americans have become dispirited by 1) the relentless assault of the "Anti-War" forces in the USA, 2) the losses of soldiers in Iraq, 3) the cost of the Iraq effort, and by 4) President Bush's ineptitude in his conduct of the Iraq war. 

While America needs more effective leadership, no amount of ineptitude by the Bush will ever offset the reality that America must maintain a long term ground force deterrent in Iraq to 1) protect America's vital access to Middle East oil, and 2) to control the destructive ambitions of Al Qaeda and Iran. 

Key Al Qaeda Facts

Below is a summary of key points to consider about Al Qaeda:

  • Al Qaeda participated in the planning and execution of 9/11.  It was the largest and most heinous act of terrorism in recent history and it changed strategic reality significantly.  However, it did not establish Al Qaeda as a major strategic, economic or military threat to the USA.
  • Al Qaeda was inspired to pursue 9/11 because America had not responded to its terror attacks throughout the 1990s.  Al Qaeda's leadership came to see the weakness in America's resolve, and in its political system.  This emboldened Al Qaeda to attack the U.S. on 9/11, and to aggressively pursue a terrorist war against American forces and Iraqi civilians in Iraq. 
  • Al Qaeda has not successfully attacked the USA for over six years in large part because its focus has been redirected to Iraq.  The Al Qaeda threat to American geo-strategic and economic interests is far greater in Iraq than in Afghanistan.  Despite this, the Democrats continue to assert that U.S. forces should be moved from Iraq to Afghanistan where they will be in no position to do anything about Al Qaeda unless the Democrats are prepared to invade nuclear Pakistan.  An invasion of Pakistan to get Al Qaeda would likely be costly and unsuccessful,  It could possibly topple the Musharraf government and allow radical Islamic factions to seize control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.  
  • Al Qaeda has very limited resources, and it is not a significant strategic or military threat to the USA.  Its only strategic relevance today is its ability to heinously kill enough people in Iraq to cause America to withdraw its troops.  If they succeed in that goal, it could set off a sequence of events that could be a major threat to the global economy and western civilization.
  • The only ways Al Qaeda can become strategically and economically relevant is if the America withdraws its ground forces  from Iraq, or it succeeds in taking power in Pakistan.
Iraq from an Al Qaeda Perspective

Al Qaeda has big ambitions in the Middle East, and establishing free reign in Iraq is the centerpiece of their strategy.
  • They view the Arab Sunni States as apostates for their support of American interests in the Middle East.
  • Religious Al Qaeda would like to supplant the Saudi royal family as caretakers of Mecca and Medina.
  • Secular Al Qaeda would like to join with their radical Wahabi brethren in Saudi Arabia to eject the Saudi and Kuwaiti Royal families and seize control of almost a third of the world's oil reserves as a base of world economic and military that they can use to destroy western civilization and spread their heinous religious and social vision by establishing a huge Islamic caliphate based in Saudi Arabia.
  • If Al Qaeda can establish free reign to operate from  Iraq and position itself on the Saudi border, it would be in the ideal position to pursue its ambitions.
After an objective look at the Iraq situation from an Al Qaeda point of view, a rational strategic mind would probably conclude that:
  • Al Qaeda has made the strategic decision to limit its military activities within Iraq through its proxies in disaffected Sunni elements, and other imported martyrs from Sunni Islamic sources.
  • They have concluded that the ruthless violence they sponsored in Iraq failed to drive the USA from Iraq and resulted in heavy casualties for their proxies.
  • A far less costly and more effective strategy to achieve their ambitions would be to reduce the violence in Iraq to levels that would permit U.S. politicians to withdraw American ground forces from Iraq and the region, but keep up enough bombings to incent an early departure by the USA.
  • The exit of U.S. ground forces from Iraq would leave a huge security void in Iraq that would  unleash bloody chaos and engender permanent resentment from the Iraqi people toward the USA.  The Iraqi military and police would be unable to control the violence, and Al Qaeda activities even with support from Iran, Syria and a limited U.S. ground force presence. 
  • Once free to operate in Iraq, Al Qaeda would be positioned on the Saudi and Kuwaiti borders and ideally situated to pursue its ambitions to infiltrate. undermine and ultimately destroy the militarily weak royal regimes with help from their radical Wahabi brethren inside Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
  • An American withdrawal from Iraq would cause oil prices to skyrocket and thereby provide Al Qaeda financing source with additional dollars and greater motivation to support Al Qaeda's ambitions.
  • If America surrenders in Iraq, it will be a huge victory for Al Qaeda, and they will be able to use Iraq as a base of operations to attack American interests all over the world as well as U.S. citizens in the American homeland.  It will also offer Al Qaeda a huge recruiting bonanza because the USA's political weaknesses will have been exposed for all the world to see.  This will most likely encourage additional men and money sources to join Al Qaeda as it will have become obvious that the USA is politically vulnerable to persistent attacks.
  • Osama bin Laden has said: "Success in Baghdad will be success for the United States.  Failure in Iraq is the failure of the United States.  Their defeat in Iraq will mean defeat in all their wars."
  • Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two leader of Al Qaeda, said that Iraq "is now the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era." He also said, "the Jihad in Iraq requires several incremental goals: The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq."
  • Al Qaeda is a growing threat within nuclear Pakistan, and could become a major problem if they can successfully undermine the Musharraf regime through terror and support from its sympathizers within the Pakistani intelligence services.
  • An American withdrawal from Iraq would be trumpeted as a huge victory by Al Qaeda that would supercharge their recruiting and fundraising.  A perceived American defeat in Iraq would make it very difficult for any regime in Pakistan to continue to support America's war on terror.
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